Off Season
By: Akili Kelekele
I am introducing the first edition of "Buy, Sell, Hold," where I dive into future player output and determine a player's trajectory similar to a financial analyst evaluating a stock. These articles are by no means intended as financial advice, but a fun way to categorize a player's value in the future.
NBA off season is arguably just as exciting as the regular season. Signings, the draft, and trades, get fans excited for another 82-game season, and a rollercoaster of a postseason. This summer’s signings and trades, and even lack thereof, have caused seismic shifts across the league. Consequently, there are a handful of players who will reap the benefits from this off-season, and those whose production may falter.
Dejounte Murray:
Let’s begin with quite possibly the most influential trade of the off-season. The New Orleans Pelicans sent two first-round picks – a 2025 pick via the Los Angeles Lakers and a 2027 pick (least favorable from either the Milwaukee Bucks or the Pelicans) – to the Atlanta Hawks for Dejounte Murray. Additionally, Larry Nance Jr., E.J. Liddell and Dyson Daniels are going to Atlanta in the exchange.
In a backcourt next to Trae Young, who recorded a usage percentage of 30.4% (top 10 in the NBA), Murray averaged 22.5 PTS, 5.3 REB, and 6.4 AST. Without Trae Young, and as the starting point guard for the Hawks, Murray averaged 25.3 PTS, 5.7 REB, and 8.9 AST. Entering the Pelicans’ system as the starting point guard, and to bolster their two-way assets, Murray is set to have a career year. With Zion Williamson as a rim-pressuring threat and Brandon Ingram’s gravity, it should make life easy for Murray to get into the lane, get his shots, and generate easy offense for the rest of the team.
Murray will be joining a team that ranked top-10 in defense in the 2023 season, and as a result, will be able to trust the help in rotations from defenders like Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones much more than he could with the Hawks. With stronger defense surrounding Murray, he can provide extra ball pressure and gamble more in the passing lanes. Murray’s production should see a huge boost on both ends of the floor.
The Pelicans are in a “win-now” timeline, and the trade for Murray exemplifies their urgency. His production is the missing puzzle piece for this team’s success, as they struggled in the postseason to execute down the stretch against Oklahoma City. He is a strong BUY.
Tyus Jones:
Tyus Jones, a player loved in the analytics world, signed a one-year $3.3 million minimum contract with the Phoenix Suns. The Suns’ three-headed snake kept defenses awake at night, but ultimately the team fell short due to disappointing late-game woes. The Suns were 25th in turnovers and were the worst performing fourth-quarter team in the NBA last year. Late in games, the Suns needed a player to set up their offense and orchestrate easy baskets.
Devin Booker, as talented as he is, was not fit for that role. Devin Booker is a scorer who is great at creating his own shot, but not necessarily others’ shots. The mark of a true point guard is knowing what positions and spots players are the most comfortable in, attacking the rim in an effort to force the defense into tough decisions, and “passing players open.” Passing players open is a concept most Quarterbacks understand, and it means to put the ball in a spot where a teammate has the best opportunity to drive the ball or score with a shot. For example, a player may not appear open in transition because of defenders in the way, but a true point guard can see a window to place the ball to get his/her teammate the ball for an easy score.
Tyus Jones is one of the few conventional point guards remaining in the NBA today. This past season, he posted the best assist-turnover ratio in the NBA at just above 7. No one else even cracked 5. In an awful Wizards offense, and alongside Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, and Jordan Poole, Jones averaged 12 PTS and 7 AST in 29 minutes. With a more instrumental role on the Phoenix Suns, one can expect his production to inflate a bit. Although the Phoenix Suns have more proverbial mouths to feed, Jones will find easy buckets because of the “gravity” of his all-star caliber counterparts. Tyus Jones is a BUY.
BONUS: Filling the void for Washington now is draftee Bud Carrington, a 6’4 combo guard out of Pittsburgh. His size, skill set and overall tenacity will be promising for Wizards fans. Carrington averaged 16 PTS, 7 REB, and 5 AST in the Summer League. He is poised to have a strong rookie year and one can reasonably expect he is a strong BUY as well.
Paul George:
Paul George’s signing caused the biggest seismic shift in the league, strengthening Philadelphia’s already-contending roster. George signed a 4-year $212 million contract with the Philadelphia 76ers. Though this signing is sexy and has fans excited, in terms of fantasy basketball, George will not offer any more production than he did with the Los Angeles Clippers. If anything, George will take a step back in production. With Tyrese Maxey bursting on the scene, and Philly giving him his rookie max extension, it is safe to say Darryl Morey sees Maxey as their franchise player alongside Embiid. Maxey and Embiid are still the 1-2 punch here, and Paul George will have the leftovers. Sure, George will have his games, but for the most part, it is hard to imagine George averaging any more than 20 points per game. For now, George is a SELL. Of course, he becomes a strong buy in the event that Maxey or Embiid get injured.
Chris Paul:
Though he is entering his twentieth season in the NBA, Chris Paul is still capable of adding value to any franchise he sets foot in. His leadership has been showcased throughout every team he has played for, and it does not look like it will stop anytime soon. Paul is coming off of a rough year with the Golden State Warriors, posting a career-low in points per game of 9.2. In Golden State it clearly was not a great fit for Paul, and it was not wholly his fault. Paul thrives in an environment where he can almost be the offensive engine for the team. He took a young OKC Thunder from a lottery team to a playoff team in 2020. He seeks to do the same thing with the San Antonio Spurs this season, pairing up with budding stars Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassel. Paul is a BUY for this season as a good amount of weight will be on his shoulders for a young San Antonio squad.
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